Robert C. Bowman, M.D.
The medical schools with higher MCAT scores have lower levels of physician distribution. The humble origin student types that are found in rural locations, underserved locations, primary care, or family medicine careers are also the ones that have the lower MCAT scores (Characteristics of the MCAT Examinees). These are all groups that also have the lowest probability of admission. Changes in Admissions in Allopathic Medical Schools involve increasing income levels of students. This is also likely to be associated with the increasing MCAT scores for admitted medical students. The MCAT scores, standardized to 1993 levels by AAMC (Julian), have been steadily increasing since that time. The bioscience component is rising at nearly 0.1 unit a year. MCAT Changes Since 1992
There is little doubt that allopathic medical students are a more narrow representation of higher income populations and those found nearest medical schools in the United States. This includes highest income, foreign born, Asian, and those born in counties with medical schools. Over 60% of US medical students were born in cities or counties with medical schools in this or in other nations. For some schools the levels approach 90%. Understanding the differences in race, ethnicity, education, income, and proximity to medical schools is important in understanding admissions and distribution. See tables in Shaping a Nation: Physicians Who Serve
Asian medical students are perhaps the best representation of the direction of medical school admissions. Asian students have increased the most rapidly from a few percent to 23% of medical students. Asian students are a concentration of all of the factors most related to admission and also to poor distribution. Whites and other students with the same higher status combinations and concentrations have the same higher probability of admission and poor distribution.
Asian students have an advantage in admissions as they have a higher MCAT score compared to USMLE 1 scores. Whites have a lower MCAT and higher USMLE 1 (Veloski reference) These studies did not compare origins but whites are less urban, less connected to medical schools, and more of a mix of ages and income levels. One interpretation would be that students with every advantages of income and education as represented by Asian students, have a peak level as noted by the MCAT. Asian populations are at their peak concentrations in the most densely populated areas in counties with the most medical schools. Whites are at their lowest concentration in these areas with only 44%. White medical students are a greater mix of rural born and older and lower income that have not had the same consistent advantages as highest income whites, Asians, or any other group. The comparison of their scores reveals that their performance is still improving. They also have had life experiences such as marriage that may also help them with medical school performance. Asian students are the youngest, have the fewest life experiences, and are the least likely to be married.
There are very narrow differences in the GPA and MCAT scores of those accepted and rejected for whites and Asians. A small margin may be enough to deny an interview or result in a lower rank for admission.
Ranking students by socioeconomics, scores, college power ratings, or proximity to medical schools can make it difficult to distribute physicians. Those least likely to distribute would be admitted and those most different and diverse would be excluded. The loss of lowest income and rural born student types is some level of confirmation that the nation is Changing Admissions in Allopathic Medical Schools. Whether this is deteriorations in education, fewer pursuing medical education, debt, legal actions with reversals of affirmative actions, national pressures such as US News and World Report Rankings or other factors is unknown, but all are likely.
Medical educators such as Mark Albanese have researched the concept of thresholds where students are evaluated for a minimal academic value and placed into an acceptable pool. The final selections involve much less emphasis on scores. Schools noted to distribute have also a different focus in admissions. Duluth 20 Questions
It is helpful to have visual renditions of the changes in Difficulty and Distinction with changing MCAT scores in students.
The source of this data is Ellen Julian's article on MCAT and performance in Academic Medicine Vol 80, Number 10 October 2005. On page 916 there are a number of graphics in the article .
The charts make the point of Mark Albanese and others regarding thresholds. Beyond a level of approximately 8, there is little to gain and potentially much to lose. Admitting higher MCAT scores narrow admissions without improving the relative rates of difficulty or distinction which are flat.
The rates of physician distribution in relationship to MCAT scores, income, or rural origins are not flat.
You can drive a truck though the pathway between difficulty and distinction. Significant numbers of lower scoring students still achieve distinction levels. Trying to admit students 1 point higher means very little in terms of difficulty or distinction for nearly all of the students who are typically admitted. Performance is more and more likely to be related to individual factors and not related to MCAT scores.
However from the perspective of health access and physician distribution, a 1 point MCAT score means 3 - 5 percentage points lower choice of family medicine for a typical medical school.
MCAT and Choice of Rural Practice
The following scatterplot (from Robert Bowman) compares medical school MCAT scores collected from medical school web sites with Match Data on FP choice for allopathic US schools.
As with other regression studies, the schools with the lower MCAT scores have higher choice of family medicine. A 1 point higher MCAT score translates to 5 - 9 fewer family physicians in a typical class of 131 students. The loss of 3000 lower and middle income students out of 16,000 admissions and their replacement by 3000 of the highest income origin students is a concern for more than family medicine. This has been the effect of changing admissions in just the past 10 years. Changing Admissions in Allopathic Medical Schools. Increases in the income levels of those taking standardized tests results in higher scores.
From Cooter's study from Jefferson Longitudinal Data See also Attrition Rates
| Family Med | Failure | |
| Lowest Quartile | 22% | 6% |
| Middle Quartiles | 17% | 3% |
| Highest Quartile | 13% | 1% |
Basically medical school evaluations can identify 90% of those at risk of academic failure which are also those with the highest probability of a return to the populations of their birth. Of these students 80% or more will graduate. And those that are most different will distribute at the highest levels, particularly when Choosing Family Medicine, the career that facilitates physician distribution
Admissions Income Quartiles - for admissions probabilities and distribution probabilities
MCAT and Choice of Family Medicine
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