Logistic Regression: Choice of Career

 The 189,194 recent US MD Grads were compared for career choice.

 

Odds Ratios

Researcher

Teaching

Family Medicine

Cardiology

Obstetrics

Orthopedics

Psychiatry

% of US MD Grads

0.8%*

0.6%*

13.2%

2.3%

6.5%

2.9%

5.4%

Top Quartile MCAT

2.625

0.945

0.724

1.088

0.776

1.261

0.930

Public School

0.695

0.961

1.615

0.851

1.017**

0.877

1.156

Foreign Born

0.689

0.682

.819

1.180

1.167

0.613

0.810

Older than 29 years

1.283

1.042

1.425

0.615

0.927

0.583

1.685

Younger than 26 years

0.896

1.112

0.691

1.242

0.974**

0.814

0.912

MS County/City

1.011

0.953

0.766

1.165

0.929

0.933

1.016

Int Medicine Res Grad

2.169

1.573

 

 

 

 

 

Bottom Income

0.827

0.940

1.077

1.036

1.144

0.129

1.037

Top Quartile Income

0.996

0.981

0.972

0.966

1.048

0.019

1.080

Rural Birth

0.826

1.081

1.333

1.066

1.024**

0.566

1.023

Mid US Longitudes

0.749

1.005

1.156

0.922

1.002**

0.178

1.129

Family Medicine

0.237

2.248

 

 

 

 

 

* Researchers take more time, but early research choice for the 1987 - 1999 graduates involves the same schools and graduates as the 1971 - 1994 graduates. There are also more teachers than listed in the Masterfile, usually about 4% is a typical estimate for teaching in family medicine (and primary care and physician assistants) but there may be more teaching in family medicine, as noted above.

** not significant

 

These should be considered screening examinations that should have follow-ups using individual data such as MCAT scores, parent income, and more details on locations and education prior to admission. For example, it is not uncommon for birth cities such as Los Alamos NM, Schenectady NY (General Electric research), and other cities with federal or business research facilities to come up as birth cities for physician researchers.

 

Research Choice - Students in the top MCAT schools, those choosing internal medicine, and those older age at graduation are more likely to choose research. Those choosing family medicine are the least likely to be found in research (although in the experience of this author family medicine researchers may take additional years). Public school and foreign born medical students also have lower choice of family medicine. Surprisingly lower income origins and rural birth are not as great an obstacle. Researchers may be spread out across the nation waiting for better opportunity. Also research may also depend upon management and people skills that are also found in particular types of students, and perhaps not in others.

 

Although MCAT may seem to be a factor in research choice, this involves guilt by association. The medical schools that seek out researchers and the research interested students seek each other out. These schools are also the schools that can select the types of physicians that they desire. They choose those of higher MCAT scores in addition to students with top research experience and interest. They also internally develop researchers and have the highest levels of NIH funding. About 21 medical schools graduate half of the physician researchers and get about half of NIH funding. Research choice is clearly more than just standardized test scores. Medical schools not in the top 30 or 40 research schools, that attempt to select researchers based on scores are attempting to find researchers in a pool already depleted by the previous choices of the best research students by higher ranking schools.

 

Teaching Choice - Other than lower choice of teaching careers by foreign born medical students and higher choice in family medicine and internal medicine grads, there is not much that defines teaching choice. Teaching may be widely spread among all populations. The slight contribution of older grads to teaching may be found to be those who were teachers in prior careers. Again individual studies would assist in this determination.

 

Family Medicine Choice - The MCAT and Choice of Family Medicine is described elsewhere. Public school has long been known to be a factor. Foreign born US MD Grads and younger graduates have the lowest choice of family medicine in studies. Older age, lower and middle income origins, and rural birth are associated with greater FP choice. There are geographic locations with greater choice of family medicine and this includes middle longitudes and cities and states with less divisions between rich and poor.

Bright Future Rankings

 

Cardiology Choice - Many of the internal medicine specialties are pursued by those with top scores, those younger at admission, and foreign born US MD Grads. Connections to a medical school by birth may also suggest parents who are professionals or physicians. Analysis at the medical school level

 

Psychiatry Choice - Students from public medical schools, older students, and students that are not foreign born are more likely to be found in psychiatry. Again studies of earlier experiences may help in defining choice of psychiatry. Some studies identify out of state students or students from certain states as having greater psychiatry choice.

 

Older Medical Students Central

 

MCAT and Physician Distribution

 

MCAT Correlations

 

Physician Workforce Studies

 

rbowman@unmc.edu

 

www.ruralmedicaleducation.org