Using FP choice by ethnicity of matriculants and student choice of FP by urban or rural birth origins for whites, this prediction estimate was made for FP/GP physicians from 1978 - 2000. This is actual choice of FP and GP from AMA Masterfile and AAFP sources so the numbers are higher. Only about 10% are GP physicians.
The baseline for FP match is origins data that is likely related to socioeconomic status of student and parent. The sine wave variation has to do with external influences, mostly outside of medical education like managed care. The perception of a career in family medicine may move the likelihood of choice up or down on a socioeconomic scale, with more middle income students choosing FP during the managed care years as compared to other time periods.
Robert C. Bowman, M.D.
10/13/04