(Annals of Internal Medicine) In spring and summer 2022, an outbreak of mpox occurred worldwide, largely confined to men who have sex with men (MSM). There was concern that mpox could break swiftly into congregate settings and populations with high levels of regular frequent physical contact, like university campus communities.
Objective: To estimate the likelihood of an mpox outbreak and the potential effect of mitigation measures in a residential college setting.
Design: A stochastic dynamic SEIR (susceptible, exposed but not infectious, infectious, or recovered) model of mpox transmission in a study population was developed, composed of: a high-risk group representative of the population of MSM with a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.4 and a low-risk group with an R0 of 0.8. Base input assumptions included an incubation time of 7.6 days and time to recovery of 21 days.