A week after hitting the highest level since January, the number of COVID-19 cases in Nebraska trended downward last week.
The state recorded 2,739 new virus cases last week, down 24% from the 3,619 recorded the week before, according to data from the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
U.S. cases also dropped, falling 3%. A week after nearly every state saw rising cases, half the states saw case declines — underscoring the unpredictable nature of the virus.
One local expert said he’s not surprised by the recent ups and downs and unpredictability as the nation enters winter.
Joseph Fauver, an assistant professor of epidemiology in the University of Nebraska Medical Center’s College of Public Health, said it’s difficult to predict what will happen because COVID immunity levels are more complex than they were last year. People have had a lot of different combinations of infections and vaccinations.
But based on the virus’s genomics, Fauver said he foresees a long plateau of infections ahead rather than the dramatic spike in cases and hospitalizations the nation saw last January.
Fauver, who specializes in the genomic epidemiology of pathogens, cautioned, however, that the situation could change if a novel variant arrives and replaces the current variants that are circulating.
“COVID can always surprise us,” Fauver said.
Last fall, cases caused by the delta variant had begun to drift downward. That variant was very transmissible, Fauver said, but the vaccines appeared to work well against it.
Then came the holidays, with more gatherings and more time indoors. In the midst of that came the omicron variant, which within weeks replaced delta as the main variant. Not only was omicron highly transmissible, Fauver said, it was really good at evading immunity from previous infections and vaccinations.
Now, as people mingle again, most people have had COVID and many have received some level of vaccination. Booster rates, on the other hand, are low. On the plus side, Fauver said, the variants now dominating — BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 — are closely related to the ones that have been circulating for nearly eight months.
“I think we are absolutely going to see an increase in cases,” Fauver said. “... But the conditions for what we saw last year are not quite there.”
That doesn’t mean COVID won’t be a problem, he said, because it’s circulating with other respiratory illnesses.
“Even if we don’t see a huge wave, any wave is problematic,” he said.
The health care system already is being strained by the combination of viral illnesses. Hospitalizations for COVID-19 were up in Nebraska last week. The daily average of 255 Nebraskans hospitalized with the virus during the week was up 6% over the previous week and the highest figure since early March.
Cases of RSV, while still high, have begun to come down. But influenza activity remained very high in Nebraska last week. Nearly 400 Nebraskans were hospitalized with influenza-like illness last week, up 49 from the week before.
Nationally, the CDC noted last week that flu activity remains high but appears to be declining in some areas. Reports of influenza-like illness — which includes flu and other infections that cause fever, cough or sore throat — slowed slightly during the week ending Dec. 10. Hospitalizations also dropped for the first time this season.
Health officials note that could change, as it has in past seasons. They continued to urge people to get their flu and COVID shots. The new boosters confer some protection against infection and, according to CDC, may reduce the risk of severe illness by 50% or more.
Nebraska’s COVID case rate remains high nationally, ranking 12th among the states. But in addition to cases being down statewide last week, cases were down 17% in Douglas County, 2% in Sarpy and 27% in Lancaster. Wastewater sampling in those counties also reflected falling virus levels after several weeks on the rise.
Nebraska also recorded three new COVID deaths last week, bringing the total for the pandemic to 4,675. The state has recorded just under 550,000 positive virus tests overall.
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