Washington Post OPINION
This November, the Pan American Health Organization will review whether the United States has lost its measles elimination status — a designation held since 2000. As of April 23, 1,792 confirmed cases have been reported across the U.S. Utah is the latest epicenter: nearly 600 cases since last summer. At one to three deaths per thousand cases, the arithmetic is clear: Deaths are coming. Last year’s measles outbreak was the worst since 1992: 2,288 cases, three deaths. A 6-year-old unvaccinated girl died of measles pneumonia in Lubbock, Texas, in February 2025 — the first measles death in the U.S. in a decade. A second unvaccinated 8-year-old girl died in the same city weeks later. A simulation model in JAMA projects an 83 percent probability that measles will become endemic again in the U.S. within 21 years at current vaccination rates. Under a 50 percent decline in childhood vaccination, the model projects up to 159,200 deaths over 25 years from measles and other vaccine-preventable diseases. Measles alone would account for 51.2 million projected cases.