International health experts say a pandemic is inevitable at some point in the future. Scientists are concerned that a pandemic from the H5N1 virus may emerge soon because two of the three conditions for an avian flu pandemic already exist with the H5N1 virus.
As a result, global nations, local governments, businesses and households are planning for such a scenario.
A pandemic, experts say, is possible given that a new strain of the virus has emerged to which humans have little or no immunity and the strain already has shown it can jump between species. A virus capable of sustained person-to-person transmission is the only missing link to launching the world’s next pandemic.
Once this happens, containment will be difficult, particularly with today’s global travels. A person flying from Athens, Bangkok or Bucharest could unknowingly carry the virus and land in Chicago less than a day later. A similar situation occurred with SARS, which traveled quickly from Asia to Canada.
The speed at which a pandemic travels depends on a number of factors once it becomes transmissible, said Jan Keuchel, infectious control specialist for The Nebraska Medical Center. Containing the pandemic depends on where it originates from, how soon health officials determine the virus is transmissible, and how quickly vaccines and antivirals can be obtained for treatment.
Planning for any type of disaster is important, but particularly with avian flu, which will likely overwhelm health services and commerce. Preparation before the disaster is key; once a pandemic strikes, families and businesses will not have adequate time to stock up on needed supplies or plan how they will handle issues, such as school closings or interruptions in services.
As a result, world health organizations encourage individuals to plan for a pandemic or other disaster. Beyond educating one’s self about potential threats, individuals can develop a family emergency plan and assemble a comprehensive disaster supply kit. A disaster preparedness brochure is available on the medical center’s avian flu Web site at www.unmc.edu/avianflu.